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U.S. commercial real estate pricing ticked up modestly at the start of 2026, while underlying market indicators continued to point to a challenging environment for transactions and capital deployment. MSCI Real Assets reported that its RCA CPPI US National All Property Index increased 0.3% year-over-year in January 2026.
The small annual gain masks a loss of momentum in recent months. According to MSCI Real Assets, the annualized rate of change implied by December data points to a 1.3% decline, underscoring that pricing pressure has not fully eased despite the latest headline increase.
MSCI Real Assets noted that current pricing patterns are consistent with “bumpy” market conditions. Transaction activity remains below historical norms, signaling a quieter investment sales environment. At the same time, elevated financing costs continue to weigh on underwriting and deal feasibility, limiting how quickly pricing can adjust and recover across much of the market.
Performance is increasingly differentiated by property type. Industrial assets led price growth in January, with that sector registering a 3.7% year-over-year increase. MSCI Real Assets highlighted that investor capital is gravitating toward property types backed by stronger demand drivers, citing industrial properties tied to artificial intelligence and logistics as key beneficiaries.
Other sectors showed either mild declines or flat performance. Retail property pricing fell 1.3% year-over-year in January, indicating continued repricing pressure even as fundamentals have stabilized in some formats. Apartment values edged down 0.1% from a year earlier, essentially flat but still reflecting a slight negative shift compared with the prior year.
Office pricing remained uneven and highly segmented. Suburban office assets recorded a 1.9% increase in values year-over-year, suggesting certain non-CBD locations are finding support from occupier and investor demand. By contrast, central business district office prices declined 1.3% over the same period, underscoring weaker investor appetite and more challenging fundamentals for dense urban office cores.
Collectively, the January index results indicate that while broad U.S. commercial property prices are no longer falling as sharply as in prior periods, the recovery is fragile and varies widely by sector and location type. Market participants face a backdrop of subdued transaction volume, higher borrowing costs, and capital selectively targeting industrial and other demand-supported segments, even as retail, apartments, and especially CBD office contend with more muted or negative pricing trends.
The post MSCI: US CRE Prices Edge Up in January as Industrial Leads Amid Bumpy Market Conditions appeared first on CRE Market Beat.
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