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**MBA Projects 27% Increase in Commercial Mortgage Volume for 2026**
Total commercial mortgage origination volume is projected to increase by 27% to $805.5 billion in 2026, up from the $633.7 billion expected in 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). These projections were announced at MBA’s 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo, held in San Diego. Multifamily mortgage originations specifically are forecasted to rise to $399.2 billion in 2026, compared to $330.6 billion anticipated in 2025.
The 2026 economic and market outlook was presented by MBA Chief Economist and SVP for Research and Business Development Mike Fratantoni, Associate VP of Commercial Real Estate Finance (CREF) Research Reggie Booker, and Associate VP of CREF Research Judith Ricks.
“MBA forecasts that GDP grew 2.3% in 2025, but will slow in the next two years, with projections of 1.9% growth in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027,” said Fratantoni. “The unemployment rate is expected to average 4.5% in 2026, up slightly from 4.3% in 2025.”
Strong originations at the end of 2025 point to a robust pipeline of commercial mortgage activity continuing into 2026. According to the MBA, many borrowers were able to refinance loans approaching maturity, contributing to the uptick.
“The CRE lending market showed strength throughout 2025,” said Ricks. “Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first half of the year, and that growth persisted into the second half. The multifamily market followed a similar trend, and we expect that momentum to continue into 2026.”
Ricks added that much of this activity stemmed from refinancing and acquisitions, with borrowers taking advantage of favorable interest rates. This is expected to reduce the volume of mortgage debt maturing in the coming years.
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